- Bitcoin trying to stay above 350MA, caution needed until BTC crosses above 2-yr MA
- For the next 6-10 weeks, analyst Philip Swift expecting Bitcoin to grid up slowly
- $6,500 as a “good support,” BTC sustaining below this level unlikely
It’s been about a week since we are in December and Bitcoin has been struggling between $7,100 and $7,600 range.
Currently, BTC/USD is trading at $7,450, up 1.38% in the past 24 hours, as per Coincodex while managing the daily trading volume of just $280 million, slowly declining to below $200 million level seen earlier this week, as we approach the weekend.
Bitcoin might not be showing any signs of making a big move on the surface, especially with the volume continuing to remain extremely low but according to analyst Philip Swift “Bull market is close.”
Bitcoin’s price he notes is “aggressively” bouncing off the 350-day moving average after a retest which is important because Swift says, it has “always indicated the start of Bitcoin bull markets.”
Now, we are back to retesting it which is unusual but the price the market has to pay for going too high in May, 160% surge in Q3 2019.
Breaking down through 350DMA, Swift says would “signal an end” to the bull market as such the bulls are defending this level “very hard” which is what we are currently seeing.
Now, taking a look at the Bitcoin network momentum, in previous cycles during this point, the market saw a rapid increase in on-chain BTC volumes about 6 to 10 weeks before the bull market started.
Though now the market is seeing more custodial ownership and bitcoins being held on exchanges — over 1.925 million BTC are held by a handful of top exchanges — the analyst is still expecting “a significant uplift in on-chain activity very soon.”
All of this, Swift says suggests that Bitcoin is in the late bear phase of the market cycle. Combining these signals further with the Golden Ratio Multiplier, he sees a big move coming in January or February to $13k-$14k area.
“After a brief pause around there…number go up!” Swift said. But before that, the wait is for “a few daily closes above the 2yr MA to really drive confidence.”
(The answer is $162/year)
— Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) December 6, 2019
Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone sees $6,500 as a “good support” and $10,000 as the “initial resistance” in 2020. However, indicators suggest BTC sustaining below $6,500 is unlikely.
However, market maturation also suggests surpassing the all-time high set in 2017 bull market at $20,000 will take “longer.”